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"n_decisions": 2849, "peak_genome_hash": "7396a96d89fb2de3", "peak_params": { "at_peak": { "base": { "carry_ppm": 250000, "edges": { "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": 200000, "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": 100000, "basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": 150000, "thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 38477 }, "leak_ppm": 500000, "lr_ppm": 100000 }, "carry_ppm": 500000, "edges": { "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": 0, "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": 0, "basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": 750000, "thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 192385 }, "leak_ppm": 900000, "lr_ppm": 0, "m_ppm": 1000000, "mem_scale_ppm": 0, "obs": 44475 }, "at_post": { "base": { "carry_ppm": 250000, "edges": { "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": 200000, "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": 100000, "basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": 150000, "thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 42669 }, "leak_ppm": 500000, "lr_ppm": 100000 }, "carry_ppm": 250000, "edges": { "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": 200000, "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": 100000, 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"purge_gap": { "first": 37421, "last": 37470 }, "window": { "first": 37471, "last": 62363 } }, "determinism": { "control_equals_placebo": true, "control_equals_plain_replay": true, "control_weights_equal_plain": true, "hashes": { "control": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "placebo": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "plain_stop": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "production_unpatched": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773" }, "plain_replay_unpatched_equals_control": true, "rerun_identical": true }, "disclaimer": "REBUS Lab tests computational mechanisms INSPIRED by the REBUS model (relaxed beliefs under psychedelics) in a simulated circuit replayed offline on recorded data. It does not simulate a drug, subjective experience, hallucination or consciousness; 'intensity' is a dimensionless multiplier of registered parameter changes.", "experiment": { "base_circuit": "circexp config 5 enter_low_bias0_wide", "code_dirty_at_run": false, "code_revision": "8f3ab2c128f436576579cd01ca188b120c48fdcb", "created_utc_note": "see git log; no wall-clock value is part of the result", "dataset_kind": "RECORDED", "evidence_class": "CONFIRMATORY_WITH_DISCLOSED_REUSE", "evidence_note": "Registered protocol run once, but this window was already used by circexp's test, Experiment 001 and CONTROL-only counts (pre-registration section 0). Not a clean untouched test set.", "flag": "DEGEN_REBUS_LAB", "id": "REBUS-002", "intensity_table": "v2", "labels": { "decisions": "REAL_SHADOW_DECISION (recorded replay)", "outcomes_counterfactual": "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH", "outcomes_realized": "REALIZED_SHADOW", "shadow_weights": "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH" }, "preregistration": "docs/REBUS-PREREGISTRATION-002.md", "protocol_sha256": "4a9953fa05881c83aeaa328083179eaa196f8549286f0091a01518607fb3cf4f", "status": "COMPLETED", "title": "AlphaMorph // REBUS Experiment 002", "version": 1, "window_role": "HELD_OUT" }, "limitations": [ "One recorded stream and one base circuit (circexp config 5, a research genome). The circexp finalist rule selected no configuration and config 5's evolution-window policy value is below c0's: it is not an improvement and results do not generalise beyond it.", "The held-out window was already used by circexp's one-shot test, by Experiment 001 (default genome) and by CONTROL-only counts for this registration: the run is CONFIRMATORY_WITH_DISCLOSED_REUSE, not a clean untouched test set. The replication segment (evolution window) is not independent of the circuit choice (config 5 was chosen for its entries there).", "CONTROL has zero entries in the held-out window, so entries can only appear through perturbation-caused abstain->enter flips; REALIZED_SHADOW performance is usually INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE and never a confirmatory outcome.", "H8 pools ONSET+PEAK+RECOVERY and the minimum-sample rules were fixed after seeing CONTROL-only decision counts (disclosed in the pre-registration).", "Seeds (8) only randomise the RANDOM comparator; the REBUS condition itself is deterministic.", "Shadow-weights (counterfactual learning) are a research construct that never feeds back into the decision actually taken; their effect is shown only through 'shadow decisions'.", "Counterfactual outcomes come from fixed-notional paper positions opened at abstentions (selection-biased); they are not trade records.", "Decisions of different conditions are matched on (token, decision obs, apply obs, sensory flag); decisions that exist in one condition only are reported as unmatched, not imputed.", "Tokens are the bootstrap cluster; decisions of one token are not independent. Observations of the same stream are not independent of the market regime.", "Fixed hand-chosen registered maxima; EXTREME sits on the validated bounds (the memory-drive factor bound was widened to [0, 1.5] for this lab); no claim that any level is 'optimal'." ], "metrics": { "dose_response": { "EXTREME": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": 0.010668, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.011765 }, "HIGH": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": 0.003885, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.003831 }, "LOW": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": null, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.0 }, "MEDIUM": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": null, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.0 } }, "exp002": { "base_circuit": { "circexp_config_id": 5, "genome_hash": "929249b659a4d03b", "name": "enter_low_bias0_wide" }, "flip_analysis": { "REBUS_EXTREME": { "attribution_to_single_mechanisms": null, "direction": { "abstain->abstain (reason changed)": 0, "abstain->enter": 3, "enter->abstain": 0 }, "examples": [ { "attributed_to": null, "control_go": 128533, 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"mean_abs_control_margin_gap_ppm_unflipped_margin_stage": 316070.9 }, "REBUS_HIGH": { "attribution_to_single_mechanisms": { "combination_only": 1 }, "direction": { "abstain->abstain (reason changed)": 0, "abstain->enter": 1, "enter->abstain": 0 }, "examples": [ { "attributed_to": [], "control_go": 117798, "control_margin_gap_ppm": -161790, "control_nogo": 279588, "from": "abstain:sensory_only:nogo", "obs": 45437, "rebus_go": 153687, "rebus_nogo": 150719, "to": "enter:sensory_only", "token": "0x56f316047b358c0d3c04540ff47ff4373df48ec0" } ], "examples_note": "first 60 flipped decisions in observation order", "flipped_total": 1, "mean_abs_control_margin_gap_ppm_flipped": 161790.0, "mean_abs_control_margin_gap_ppm_unflipped_margin_stage": 309451.6 } }, "margin_stage_counts": { "CONTROL": { "BASELINE": { "decisions": 203, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 91 }, "ONSET": { "decisions": 171, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 73 }, "PEAK": { "decisions": 268, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 100 }, "POST": { "decisions": 506, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 156 }, "RECOVERY": { "decisions": 187, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 58 } }, "REBUS_EXTREME": { "BASELINE": { "decisions": 203, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 91 }, "ONSET": { "decisions": 171, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 73 }, "PEAK": { "decisions": 255, "entries": 3, "margin_stage": 90 }, "POST": { "decisions": 506, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 156 }, "RECOVERY": { "decisions": 185, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 56 } }, "REBUS_HIGH": { "BASELINE": { "decisions": 203, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 91 }, "ONSET": { "decisions": 171, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 73 }, "PEAK": { "decisions": 261, "entries": 1, "margin_stage": 94 }, "POST": { "decisions": 506, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 156 }, "RECOVERY": { "decisions": 187, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 58 } } }, "margin_stage_reasons": [ "nogo", "sensory_only:nogo", "go", "sensory_only" ], "mem_factor_bounds": [ 0, 1500000 ], "table_v1": { "carry": -600000, 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"control_learn_events_onset_to_recovery": 101, "control_path_length_ppm": 3421432, "cosine_with_control_delta": 1.0, "distance_to_control_ppm_by_window": { "BASELINE": 0, "ONSET": 0, "PEAK": 0, "POST": 0, "RECOVERY": 0 }, "learn_events_onset_to_recovery": 101, "norm_ratio_vs_control": 1.0, "path_length_ppm": 3421432, "real_weight_distance_to_control_ppm_end": 0 } }, "RANDOM_EXTREME_S1": { "changes_vs_control_PEAK": { "control_cf_outcomes_of_new_entries": { "label": "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH", "mean_ret_ppm": null, "n": 0 }, "dropped_entries_vs_control": 0, "new_entries_vs_control": 7 }, "kind": "RANDOM", "layer_errors": 0, "learn_events": { "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH": 501, "REALIZED_SHADOW": 17, "REAL_WEIGHT_UPDATE": 17 }, "n_decisions_total": 2811, "outcomes": { "BASELINE": { "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH": { "avoided_loss_ppm_sum": 1552489, "mean_ret_ppm": -36932, "missed_gain_ppm_sum": 444553, "n": 30, "n_tokens": 30, "note": "abstention paper positions at fixed small notional 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"decision_hash": "fb9ed3206bef9e3e5a8c71043e3de2cebd3e062c0af110032987f4e8ead7a5f6", "rows": 2850 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S3": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S4": { "decision_hash": "892de9e64f1d496f11f4225a4e9cb893447e9a5720e69eb796a13f076f66e797", "rows": 2846 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S5": { "decision_hash": "4c6edd251f8da3222336c10935012233ba2c2af018c39ff680023a9e4ad83f6b", "rows": 2836 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S6": { "decision_hash": "b8c215507eb72a7dc5036ddcfc5c87dae984979fc41d7bd87171d3ce6e36e010", "rows": 2843 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S7": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "RANDOM_HIGH_S8": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "REBUS_EXTREME": { "decision_hash": "dfaf61bc477b1bd934277cf679b516c799f1143e8d0caf67ce829e154bc012f9", "rows": 2838 }, "REBUS_HIGH": { "decision_hash": "892de9e64f1d496f11f4225a4e9cb893447e9a5720e69eb796a13f076f66e797", "rows": 2846 }, "REBUS_HIGH_M1": { "decision_hash": "fb9ed3206bef9e3e5a8c71043e3de2cebd3e062c0af110032987f4e8ead7a5f6", "rows": 2850 }, "REBUS_HIGH_M2": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "REBUS_HIGH_M3": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "REBUS_LOW": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 }, "REBUS_MEDIUM": { "decision_hash": "ac6b132513a026aa778241717d429c8215a8a021018ab441c08b774a5e21a773", "rows": 2853 } }, "telemetry_file": "rebus-002.telemetry.json.gz", "telemetry_sha256": "13e1dc0aedc6ce1226e552054bccbfbfd0d84d3045a870675889e5fa904c63d0" }, "tests": { "bootstrap": { "cluster": "token", "resamples": 4000, "seed": 20260513 }, "multiple_comparison_note": "Holm correction over the registered primary family ['H1', 'H2', 'H3b', 'H4', 'H5', 'H6', 'H8'] (m = number of tests that could be formed). LOW/MEDIUM levels, ablations beyond H1-H3b, dose-response, per-window metrics and per-condition CIs are descriptive/secondary and NOT corrected: do not read their intervals as confirmatory.", "primary": [ { "ci95": [ 9165.777251, 12041.927215 ], "decision": "SUPPORTED", "estimate": 10640.518072, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H1", "margin": 0.0, "mean_abs_dgo_memory_inactive_ppm": 111.833333, "mean_dgo_negative_polarity_ppm": 10637.144578, "n": 249, "n_clusters": 45, "n_memory_inactive": 18, "negative_polarity_rows": 249, "p_holm": 0.00175, "p_raw": 0.00024993751562109475, "polarity_violations": 0, "unit": "ppm mean |dGO| on memory-active decisions" }, { "ci95": [ -0.146359, 0.024407 ], "convergence_rate_control": 0.0, "convergence_rate_m2": 0.0, "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "entropy_control_bits": 6.208201, "entropy_m2_bits": 6.149259, "estimate": -0.058942, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H2", "margin": 0.1, "n": 268, "n_clusters": 48, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 0.9997500624843789, "unit": "bits (M2 minus CONTROL, matched PEAK decisions)" }, { "cosine_with_control_delta": 0.766408, "criterion": "ratio>=1.5 and cosine>=0.9 and events>=30", "decision": "NOT_SUPPORTED", "id": "H3", "learn_events": 101, "path_length_ratio": 1.523711, "real_weight_updates": 9 }, { "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "estimate": 0.0, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H3b", "margin": 0.02, "n": 506, "n_clusters": 88, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 1.0, "unit": "shadow-decision divergence rate in POST (COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH)" }, { "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.012903 ], "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "effect_size_cohens_h_vs_placebo": 0.123869, "estimate": 0.003831, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H4", "margin": 0.02, "n": 261, "n_clusters": 48, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 0.9990002499375156, "placebo_divergence_zero": true }, { "ci95": [ -0.005123, 0.006383 ], "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "estimate": 0.0, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H5", "margin": 0.02, "n": 253, "n_clusters": 48, "n_seeds": 8, "note": "8 seeds: the RANDOM mean is a coarse comparator; the CI is over tokens, not over seeds", "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 0.9887528117970508, "random_rate_by_seed": [ 0.0, 0.003953, 0.0, 0.003953, 0.01581, 0.007905, 0.0, 0.0 ], "random_rate_mean": 0.003953, "rebus_rate": 0.003953 }, { "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "effect_size_cohens_h_vs_placebo": 0.0, "estimate": 0.0, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H6", "margin": 0.02, "n": 506, "n_clusters": 88, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 1.0 }, { "changed": 1, "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.014778 ], "control_active_decisions": 626, "control_active_entries": 0, "control_active_margin_stage": 231, "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "estimate": 0.004444, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H8", "margin": 0.02, "min_margin_clusters": 20, "min_margin_stage": 60, "n": 225, "n_clusters": 58, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 0.9965008747813047, "powered": true, "unit": "decision divergence rate among CONTROL margin-stage decisions in ONSET+PEAK+RECOVERY (REBUS_HIGH vs CONTROL)" } ], "thresholds": { "alpha": 0.05, "bootstrap_B": 4000, "bootstrap_seed": 20260513, "cosine_min": 0.9, "divergence_margin": 0.02, "entropy_margin_bits": 0.1, "min_cf_closes": 30, "min_clusters": 20, "min_learn_events": 30, "min_matched_decisions": 100, "min_memory_active": 30, "min_realized_closes": 15, "min_realized_tokens": 8 } }, "topology": { "edges": [ { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "acc>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "acc", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "acc>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "acc", "w_ppm": 400000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "amygdala>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "amygdala", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "amygdala>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "amygdala", "w_ppm": 700000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 200000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "prefrontal", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 100000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "amygdala", "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "w_ppm": 150000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "cerebellum>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "cerebellum", "w_ppm": 250000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "acc", "id": "dopamine>acc", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "dopamine", "w_ppm": 200000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "hippocampus>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "MEMORY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "hippocampus", "w_ppm": 350000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "prefrontal>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "prefrontal", "w_ppm": 600000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "thalamus>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "thalamus", "w_ppm": 150000 } ], "nodes": [ { "id": "thalamus", "label": "Thalamus", "region": "attention", "role": "Attention gate: top-k salience routing of evidence channels" }, { "id": "prefrontal", "label": "Prefrontal", "region": "planning", "role": "Planner: consumes the three specialist votes as structured messages" }, { "id": "hippocampus", "label": "Hippocampus", "region": "memory", "role": "Episodic memory: nearest-neighbour recall of past closed outcomes" }, { "id": "amygdala", "label": "Amygdala", "region": "threat", "role": "Threat: provenance, whale/sniper share, tax, snipe window, curve nearly full" }, { "id": "basal_ganglia_go", "label": "Basal ganglia (Go)", "region": "action selection", "role": "Go drive of the go/no-go competition" }, { "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "label": "Basal ganglia (No-Go)", "region": "action selection", "role": "No-Go drive with mutual inhibition and feedback" }, { "id": "acc", "label": "ACC", "region": "conflict", "role": "Conflict/error monitor: specialist spread and prediction error, can force abstain" }, { "id": "cerebellum", "label": "Cerebellum", "region": "execution", "role": "Execution calibration: predicts fee/slippage friction from paper fills" }, { "id": "dopamine", "label": "Dopamine", "region": "reward prediction", "role": "Reward prediction error: realised paper return minus predicted" } ] }, "verdicts": { "definitions_ref": "REBUS-PREREGISTRATION-002.md#verdicts", "overall": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "per_hypothesis": { "divergence": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "dynamics_diversity": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "margin_stage": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "memory_prior": "DIVERGENCE_DETECTED", "overall": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "performance": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE", "persistence": "NO_PERSISTENCE", "plasticity_mechanism": "NOT_SUPPORTED", "plasticity_persistence": "NO_PERSISTENCE", "specificity": "NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE_FROM_RANDOM" }, "vocabulary": { "divergence": [ "DIVERGENCE_DETECTED", "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "performance": [ "PERFORMANCE_DIFFERENCE_SUPPORTED", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "persistence": [ "PERSISTENCE_DETECTED", "NO_PERSISTENCE", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "specificity": [ "DIFFERS_FROM_RANDOM", "NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE_FROM_RANDOM", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "test_status": [ "SUPPORTED", "NOT_SUPPORTED", "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ] } } }