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"purge_gap": null, "window": { "first": 1, "last": 37420 } }, "determinism": { "control_equals_placebo": true, "control_equals_plain_replay": true, "control_weights_equal_plain": true, "hashes": { "control": "d2713f312dd9a316d2295b6ea2569d19a1d2ad69b6c36b2da40663541e553765", "placebo": "d2713f312dd9a316d2295b6ea2569d19a1d2ad69b6c36b2da40663541e553765", "plain_stop": "d2713f312dd9a316d2295b6ea2569d19a1d2ad69b6c36b2da40663541e553765", "production_unpatched": "d2713f312dd9a316d2295b6ea2569d19a1d2ad69b6c36b2da40663541e553765" }, "plain_replay_unpatched_equals_control": true, "rerun_identical": true }, "disclaimer": "REBUS Lab tests computational mechanisms INSPIRED by the REBUS model (relaxed beliefs under psychedelics) in a simulated circuit replayed offline on recorded data. It does not simulate a drug, subjective experience, hallucination or consciousness; 'intensity' is a dimensionless multiplier of registered parameter changes.", "experiment": { "base_circuit": "circexp config 5 enter_low_bias0_wide", "code_dirty_at_run": false, "code_revision": "14fbc2c8fa7ef7d8488d402feade7b4182681256", "created_utc_note": "see git log; no wall-clock value is part of the result", "dataset_kind": "RECORDED", "evidence_class": "REPLICATION_SEGMENT", "evidence_note": "Evolution window; same protocol run once. Not independent of the circuit choice (config 5 was selected for its entries here).", "flag": "DEGEN_REBUS_LAB", "id": "REBUS-002", "intensity_table": "v2", "labels": { "decisions": "REAL_SHADOW_DECISION (recorded replay)", "outcomes_counterfactual": "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH", "outcomes_realized": "REALIZED_SHADOW", "shadow_weights": "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH" }, "preregistration": "docs/REBUS-PREREGISTRATION-002.md", "protocol_sha256": "4a9953fa05881c83aeaa328083179eaa196f8549286f0091a01518607fb3cf4f", "status": "COMPLETED", "title": "AlphaMorph // REBUS Experiment 002", "version": 1, "window_role": "REPLICATION" }, "limitations": [ "One recorded stream and one base circuit (circexp config 5, a research genome). The circexp finalist rule selected no configuration and config 5's evolution-window policy value is below c0's: it is not an improvement and results do not generalise beyond it.", "The held-out window was already used by circexp's one-shot test, by Experiment 001 (default genome) and by CONTROL-only counts for this registration: the run is CONFIRMATORY_WITH_DISCLOSED_REUSE, not a clean untouched test set. The replication segment (evolution window) is not independent of the circuit choice (config 5 was chosen for its entries there).", "CONTROL has zero entries in the held-out window, so entries can only appear through perturbation-caused abstain->enter flips; REALIZED_SHADOW performance is usually INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE and never a confirmatory outcome.", "H8 pools ONSET+PEAK+RECOVERY and the minimum-sample rules were fixed after seeing CONTROL-only decision counts (disclosed in the pre-registration).", "Seeds (8) only randomise the RANDOM comparator; the REBUS condition itself is deterministic.", "Shadow-weights (counterfactual learning) are a research construct that never feeds back into the decision actually taken; their effect is shown only through 'shadow decisions'.", "Counterfactual outcomes come from fixed-notional paper positions opened at abstentions (selection-biased); they are not trade records.", "Decisions of different conditions are matched on (token, decision obs, apply obs, sensory flag); decisions that exist in one condition only are reported as unmatched, not imputed.", "Tokens are the bootstrap cluster; decisions of one token are not independent. Observations of the same stream are not independent of the market regime.", "Fixed hand-chosen registered maxima; EXTREME sits on the validated bounds (the memory-drive factor bound was widened to [0, 1.5] for this lab); no claim that any level is 'optimal'." ], "metrics": { "dose_response": { "EXTREME": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": 0.035334, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.034483 }, "HIGH": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": 0.027601, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.034483 }, "LOW": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": null, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.0 }, "MEDIUM": { "random_peak_divergence_mean": null, "rebus_peak_divergence": 0.004902 } }, "exp002": { "base_circuit": { "circexp_config_id": 5, "genome_hash": "929249b659a4d03b", "name": "enter_low_bias0_wide" }, "flip_analysis": { "REBUS_EXTREME": { "attribution_to_single_mechanisms": null, "direction": { "abstain->abstain (reason changed)": 1, "abstain->enter": 5, "enter->abstain": 0 }, "examples": [ { "attributed_to": null, "control_go": 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"abstain->enter": 5, "enter->abstain": 0 }, "examples": [ { "attributed_to": [], "control_go": 71938, "control_margin_gap_ppm": -100955, "control_nogo": 172893, "from": "abstain:sensory_only:nogo", "obs": 12195, "rebus_go": 93058, "rebus_nogo": 78087, "to": "enter:sensory_only", "token": "0xb82a2fd252fdf4929408cf5bd8c0e61e2bdecb9b" }, { "attributed_to": [ "M1" ], "control_go": 128148, "control_margin_gap_ppm": -86397, "control_nogo": 214545, "from": "abstain:sensory_only:nogo", "obs": 13361, "rebus_go": 153960, "rebus_nogo": 88552, "to": "enter:sensory_only", "token": "0x5d83a4fd586726ce0b30183a5bb0c70341698d5a" }, { "attributed_to": [ "M1" ], "control_go": 124234, "control_margin_gap_ppm": -84512, "control_nogo": 208746, "from": "abstain:sensory_only:nogo", "obs": 14761, "rebus_go": 126003, "rebus_nogo": 87300, "to": "enter:sensory_only", "token": "0xd82a98b2fc0e1bdb517d55693fffdb7137b823dd" }, { "attributed_to": [], "control_go": 117984, "control_margin_gap_ppm": -105543, 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"decisions": 132, "entries": 0, "margin_stage": 49 } } }, "margin_stage_reasons": [ "nogo", "sensory_only:nogo", "go", "sensory_only" ], "mem_factor_bounds": [ 0, 1500000 ], "table_v1": { "carry": -600000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": -500000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": -500000, "e:basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": -500000, "e:thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 500000, "leak": -400000, "lr": 2000000, "mem": -500000 }, "table_v2_extreme": { "carry": -1000000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": -1000000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": -1000000, "e:basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": -1000000, "e:thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 4000000, "leak": -800000, "lr": 4000000, "mem": -1000000 }, "table_v2_high": { "carry": -900000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go": -800000, "e:basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal": -800000, "e:basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala": -800000, "e:thalamus>basal_ganglia_go": 1500000, "leak": -700000, "lr": 3000000, "mem": -800000 } }, "per_condition": { "CONTROL": { "kind": 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sides)" }, "inference_cost_micro": 738 }, "RECOVERY": { "COUNTERFACTUAL_RESEARCH": { "avoided_loss_ppm_sum": 1267342, "mean_ret_ppm": -45070, "missed_gain_ppm_sum": 140592, "n": 25, "n_tokens": 25, "note": "abstention paper positions at fixed small notional (selection-biased); not a trade record" }, "REALIZED_SHADOW": { "cost_micro": 0, "mean_return_ppm": null, "n": 0, "n_tokens": 0, "net_pnl_after_inference_cost_micro": 0, "net_pnl_micro": 0, "note": "paper-book pnl net of modelled fee+gas (both sides)" }, "inference_cost_micro": 0 } }, "per_window": { "BASELINE": { "abstain": 124, "action_divergence_vs_control": { "changed": 0, "matched": 127, "rate": 0.0 }, "activation_entropy_bits": 5.139897, "consistency": 1.0, "convergence_rate": 0.0, "distinct_states": 43, "divergence_vs_control": { "changed": 0, "ci95": null, "matched": 127, "n_clusters": 25, "rate": 0.0, "reasons": {}, "unmatched_only_control": 0, "unmatched_only_here": 0 }, "enter": 3, "entry_rate": 0.023622, 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seeds: the RANDOM mean is a coarse comparator; the CI is over tokens, not over seeds", "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 0.7693076730817295, "random_rate_by_seed": [ 0.006289, 0.012579, 0.012579, 0.037736, 0.025157, 0.044025, 0.012579, 0.012579 ], "random_rate_mean": 0.02044, "rebus_rate": 0.018868 }, { "ci95": [ 0.0, 0.0 ], "decision": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "effect_size_cohens_h_vs_placebo": 0.0, "estimate": 0.0, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H6", "margin": 0.02, "n": 705, "n_clusters": 149, "p_holm": 1.0, "p_raw": 1.0 }, { "changed": 7, "ci95": [ 0.016667, 0.082645 ], "control_active_decisions": 459, "control_active_entries": 0, "control_active_margin_stage": 169, "decision": "NOT_SUPPORTED", "estimate": 0.04698, "holm_m": 7, "id": "H8", "margin": 0.02, "min_margin_clusters": 20, "min_margin_stage": 60, "n": 149, "n_clusters": 37, "p_holm": 0.266933, "p_raw": 0.04448887778055486, "powered": true, "unit": "decision divergence rate among CONTROL margin-stage decisions in ONSET+PEAK+RECOVERY (REBUS_HIGH vs CONTROL)" } ], "thresholds": { "alpha": 0.05, "bootstrap_B": 4000, "bootstrap_seed": 20260513, "cosine_min": 0.9, "divergence_margin": 0.02, "entropy_margin_bits": 0.1, "min_cf_closes": 30, "min_clusters": 20, "min_learn_events": 30, "min_matched_decisions": 100, "min_memory_active": 30, "min_realized_closes": 15, "min_realized_tokens": 8 } }, "topology": { "edges": [ { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "acc>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "acc", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "acc>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "acc", "w_ppm": 400000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "amygdala>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "amygdala", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "amygdala>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "amygdala", "w_ppm": 700000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 200000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>basal_ganglia_nogo", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "prefrontal", "id": "basal_ganglia_go>prefrontal", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_go", "w_ppm": 100000 }, { "decay_ppm": 200000, "dst": "amygdala", "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo>amygdala", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "w_ppm": 150000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "w_ppm": 300000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "cerebellum>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": -1, "src": "cerebellum", "w_ppm": 250000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "acc", "id": "dopamine>acc", "klass": "SAFETY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "dopamine", "w_ppm": 200000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "hippocampus>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "MEMORY", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "hippocampus", "w_ppm": 350000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "prefrontal>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "CORE", "perturbable": false, "sign": 1, "src": "prefrontal", "w_ppm": 600000 }, { "decay_ppm": 100000, "dst": "basal_ganglia_go", "id": "thalamus>basal_ganglia_go", "klass": "ELIGIBLE", "perturbable": true, "sign": 1, "src": "thalamus", "w_ppm": 150000 } ], "nodes": [ { "id": "thalamus", "label": "Thalamus", "region": "attention", "role": "Attention gate: top-k salience routing of evidence channels" }, { "id": "prefrontal", "label": "Prefrontal", "region": "planning", "role": "Planner: consumes the three specialist votes as structured messages" }, { "id": "hippocampus", "label": "Hippocampus", "region": "memory", "role": "Episodic memory: nearest-neighbour recall of past closed outcomes" }, { "id": "amygdala", "label": "Amygdala", "region": "threat", "role": "Threat: provenance, whale/sniper share, tax, snipe window, curve nearly full" }, { "id": "basal_ganglia_go", "label": "Basal ganglia (Go)", "region": "action selection", "role": "Go drive of the go/no-go competition" }, { "id": "basal_ganglia_nogo", "label": "Basal ganglia (No-Go)", "region": "action selection", "role": "No-Go drive with mutual inhibition and feedback" }, { "id": "acc", "label": "ACC", "region": "conflict", "role": "Conflict/error monitor: specialist spread and prediction error, can force abstain" }, { "id": "cerebellum", "label": "Cerebellum", "region": "execution", "role": "Execution calibration: predicts fee/slippage friction from paper fills" }, { "id": "dopamine", "label": "Dopamine", "region": "reward prediction", "role": "Reward prediction error: realised paper return minus predicted" } ] }, "verdicts": { "definitions_ref": "REBUS-PREREGISTRATION-002.md#verdicts", "overall": "INCONCLUSIVE", "per_hypothesis": { "divergence": "INCONCLUSIVE", "dynamics_diversity": "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "margin_stage": "INCONCLUSIVE", "memory_prior": "DIVERGENCE_DETECTED", "overall": "INCONCLUSIVE", "performance": "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE", "persistence": "NO_PERSISTENCE", "plasticity_mechanism": "NOT_SUPPORTED", "plasticity_persistence": "NO_PERSISTENCE", "specificity": "NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE_FROM_RANDOM" }, "vocabulary": { "divergence": [ "DIVERGENCE_DETECTED", "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "performance": [ "PERFORMANCE_DIFFERENCE_SUPPORTED", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "persistence": [ "PERSISTENCE_DETECTED", "NO_PERSISTENCE", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "specificity": [ "DIFFERS_FROM_RANDOM", "NOT_DISTINGUISHABLE_FROM_RANDOM", "INCONCLUSIVE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ], "test_status": [ "SUPPORTED", "NOT_SUPPORTED", "NO_MEANINGFUL_DIFFERENCE", "INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE" ] } } }